Israel, Iran, and Nukes

Gershom Gorenberg analyzes the likelihood of and probabilities for success of an attack by Israel on Iran's Nuclear facilities. The Israeli media is fascinated by the possibility of an attack, although there seems be negative or mixed signals from the American military and Bush Administration.

The Ambassador's Bodyguards see a lot of movies

An enjoyable interview with Dan Gillerman, Israel's outgoing Ambassador to the United Nations.

According to Gillerman, "A diplomat is a person who can tell you to go to hell and actually make you look forward to the journey."

His replacement is the Gabriela Shalev, a law professor, and the first woman to hold the position.

VP Possibilities

I heard Mark Warner speak last night at a DL21c event. Warner was an extremely popular Democratic governor of Virginia and currently is the front-runner for a Senate seat.

He's also a possible V.P. pick for Obama. Warner's a centrist Democrat with extensive business credentials, sort of the gubernatorial version of Mike Bloomberg. Warner spoke very well, with a NY tailored speech delivered in an off-the-cuff manner, using yiddish, joking with the crowd about the competing Obama fundraiser uptown, and argued for massive federal investment in infrastructure.

Warner's sucessor in Virgnina is also a possible VP pick. Governor Tim Kaine has similar political leanings as Warner, and is similarly popular. One possible liability is Kaine's opposition to abortion on religious grounds (he's an observant Catholic).



Jim Webb is NOT interested in being Obama's running mate: in a statement he wrote tha""Under no circumstances will I be a candidate for vice president."

Warner seems likely, as does PA Governor Ed Rendell and Ohio Governor Ted Strickland.

Long Shots: former Senator Tom Daschle, former Clinton Defense Secretary William Cohen, and Bill Richardson.

Castro on Obama

He may be bedridden and deathly ill, but Fidel Castro is still railing against American Imperalism. He recently weighs in on Barack Obama's support for the Embargo...

Rawls In China

Locke, Rawls, and nationalism...in China.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/opinion/21bell.html?th&emc=th

The Hardline attack on Obama and Progressive Middle Eastern Policy

While in Israel, President Bush attacked diplomatic solutions, a veiled shot across Obama's bow.

"Some seem to believe we should negotiate with terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along," Bush said in remarks delivered Thursday to mark Irsael's 60th anniversary. "We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared, 'Lord, if only I could have talked to Hitler, all of this might have been avoided.'

The Hitler analogy is deeply misleading and historically inappropriate. The rejection of the possibility of communication and diplomatic overture with Iran or Hamas is strategically inept, in both realist and idealist foreign policy traditions.

Obama has been firm about his condemnation of Iran's policies and Hamas as a terrorist organization, but he's wisely argued that diplomatic engagement should not ruled out, and that it make sense to engage hostile states and entities in basic dialogue.

JStreet has taken the President to Task:
http://salsa.wiredforchange.com/o/2747/t/3184/campaign.jsp?campaign_KEY=2174

Made In Cambodia

Browsing in Banana Republic, a label on a nice cotton tee-shirt. caught my eye..."Made in Cambodia," it proudly declared.

A strangely pleasant event. When I lived in Cambodia, I played soccer with a manager at a garment. Garment jobs are considered to be excellent, well-paying jobs in Cambodia, though there is a risk of injury.

I didn't buy the tee-shirt. It was too big.

Back in New York

I flew out of Hong Kong at 6:40pm on Sunday. I arrived at 9:50pm, the same day. Neat trick, I think.

Initial observations on New York: it is cold, and people are unfriendly (again).

I ran into what game theorists would call a "coordination problem" at JFK: a stream of people waiting for taxis, but no mechanism to facilitate sharing of cabs. Customers pay more, fewer people take cabs, and the world suffers.

I think a key issue here is the cultural norm and lack of social capital (trust): New Yorkers aren't socialized to think collectively about services, and don't think to ask each other where they are going.

I wouldn't complain, but I could tell that there were people whose destination was downtown. I tried to to "ask" by talking to the people next to me in a slightly elevated tone, but no one took the hint.

In Hong Kong, a comparable ride would have cost 100 HK. My ride was 45, plus tip.

Bladerunner

Lonely Planet says that white is color of death in Hong Kong, and should be avoided in choosing attire.

Last evening was spent attending posh gallery openings in bright white pants.

I am staying with "Imp", my gregarious friend who works as an international journalist. Imp took me on a tour of gallery openings, followed by house parties, 7-eleven stops, and encounters with roving bands of French investment bankers.

Hong Kong seems enormously sophisticated after the dirt and dust in developing Phnom Penh. I encountered only young and affluent expats, many dressed in bespoke suits and elegantly cut dresses, thoroughly urban and highly international in taste and interest. The expats may be plentiful here, but everyone described the social community as tight, and Imp and his friends encountered many familiar faces during the night.

My current reference points for the city are London, San Francisco (hilly), and Chinatown in New York City. These seem inadequate, as i've never been to China.

The motherland seems very close, probably because it is.

Our final stop was a quiet party in lovely six-story walkup where a chinese woman (roughly my age) described China's need for nationalism, unreadiness for democracy, and historic claim to Tibet.

It was a nice cab ride home. Cabs are very cheap here, for some reason.

Back on Koh Chang, this time for work

I spent the week back in Thailand (Koh Chang, again) for DDD's management retreat. It's been a great year for DDD, one of enormous growth. During the year:

-we sold over $3 million in business (including a $2 million deal, our largest!),
-won the Skoll Award for Social Entrepreunership,
-seriously expanded our project management team
-solidified important partnerships with a number of international NGOs and businesses.

It was nice and productive week on Koh Chang with both managers from both North America and Asia.